Sep 16, 2009

Bagan Pinang by-election: Whack them where it hurts most

Analytical overview of the electorates

Registered voters as at 4th Sept.09: 13664 (including 4604 postal voters)

Breakdown by race:
Malays - 8577 (62.77%)
Chinese - 1498 (10.96%)
Indians - 2834 (20.74%)
Others - 755 (5.53% )

Since the election will be held on Sunday and with most of the electorates working in nearby KL and Selangor, a good voters turnout of 80% is expected which will gives a total of 10931 voters with the following racial breakdown:

Malays : 2257 ( 6861 – 4604(postal votes already in Umno’s favor)
Chinese: 1198
Indians: 2267
Others: 604
Projected support for PR with racial breakdown:
Malays - 1128 (50%)
Chinese - 838 (70%
Indians - 1785 ( 70% )
Others - 422 (70% )

Total votes for PR: 4173
Total votes for BN: 6952
Majority: 2779
Let us assume that the above hypothetical analysis of the by-election is generally correct, then it is without a doubt that the postal votes hold the key to victory for Umno/BN. Even if PR managed to garner 80% of the votes from all, it will still lose by 812 votes in this Umno stronghold.

It seems that the only solution for PR is to ensure that there is no massive cheating of the postal votes and to allow the postal voters the freedom to vote.

As for the election campaign, Umno will do what it knows best: use the racial trump card and ketuanan Melayu to incite fear and confuse the Malay voters. It will also attack Pas by accusing it as a puppet of the DAP and is not strong enough to protect the muslims. But then, the more they engage in racial issues, the more negative perceptions they will generate for Umno.

On the other hand, PR must try to avoid a direct confrontation with Umno on racial issues. It needs to work out a road map for the Malays to move away from the old orthodox of racial politics. In other words, the Malays must be convinced to do a paradigm shift: to stay with a racist party and move backward or to support PR and go forward together

Although the PKFZ scandal, cow head protest and the death of Teoh Beng Hock have given some bonus points to the election campaign of PR, this by-election is by far the most difficult one. No thanks to the postal votes, which has put PR in a disadvantage totally.
Although this constituency is an Umno stronghold, a victory by PR will certainly hammer a solid nail into Umno/BN's political coffin.


Anonymous said...

how do we know that postal voters and their votes are truly monitored to ensure no cheating?? does anyone know the procedure??

cancan said...

PAS youth leader has passed a memorandum to the EC with regards to the postal votes.

Let us wait and see what is the outcome.